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Widespread shifts in land cover and land management (LCLM) are being incentivized as tools to mitigate climate change, creating an urgent need for prognostic assessments of how LCLM impacts surface energy balance and temperature. Historically, observational studies have tended to focus on how LCLM impacts surface temperature (T_surf), usually at annual timescales. However, understanding the potential for LCLM change to confer climate adaptation benefits, or to produce unintended adverse consequences, requires careful consideration of impacts on bothT_surfand the near-surface air temperature (T_a,local) when they are most consequential for ecosystem and societal well-being (e.g. on hot summer days). Here, long-term data from 130 AmeriFlux towers distributed between 19–71 °N are used to systematically explore LCLM impacts on bothT_surfandT_a,local, with an explicit focus on midday summer periods when adaptive cooling is arguably most needed. We observe profound impacts of LCLM onT_surfat midday, frequently amounting to differences of 10 K or more from one site to the next. LCLM impacts onT_a,localare smaller but still significant, driving variation of 5–10 K across sites. The magnitude of LCLM impacts on bothT_surfandT_a,localis not well explained by plant functional type, climate regime, or albedo; however, we show that LCLM shifts that enhance ET or increase canopy height are likely to confer a local mid-day cooling benefit for bothT_surfandT_a,localmost of the time. At night, LCLM impacts on temperature are much smaller, such that averaging across the diurnal cycle will underestimate the potential for land cover to mediate microclimate when the consequences for plant and human well-being are most stark. Finally, during especially hot periods, land cover impacts onT_a,localandT_surfare less coordinated, and ecosystems that tend to cool the air during normal conditions may have a diminished capacity to do so when it is very hot. We end with a set of practical recommendations for future work evaluating the biophysical impacts and adaptation potential of LCLM shifts.

 

Windthrow, or the uprooting of trees by extreme wind gusts, is a natural forest disturbance that creates microhabitats, turns over soil, alters hydrology, and removes carbon from the above-ground carbon stock. Long recurrence intervals between extreme wind events, however, make direct observations of windthrow rare, challenging our understanding of this important disturbance process. To overcome this difficulty, we present an approach that uses the geomorphic record of hillslope topographic roughness as a proxy for the occurrence of windthrow. The approach produces a probability function of the number of annual windthrow events for a maximum wind speed, allowing us to explore how windthrow or tree strengths may change due to shifting wind climates. Slight changes to extreme wind speeds may drive comparatively large changes in windthrow production rates or force trees to respond and change the distribution. We also highlight that topographic roughness has the potential to serve as an important archive of extreme wind speeds. 

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, e.g., by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policy making or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree- scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policy making. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. We outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach. 

Eddy covariance measurement systems provide direct observation of the exchange of greenhouse gases between ecosystems and the atmosphere, but have only occasionally been intentionally applied to quantify the carbon dynamics associated with specific climate mitigation strategies. Natural climate solutions (NCS) harness the photosynthetic power of ecosystems to avoid emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering it in biological carbon pools. In this perspective, we aim to determine which kinds of NCS strategies are most suitable for ecosystem-scale flux measurements and how these measurements should be deployed for diverse NCS scales and goals. We find that ecosystem-scale flux measurements bring unique value when assessing NCS strategies characterized by inaccessible and hard-to-observe carbon pool changes, important non-CO2 greenhouse gas fluxes, the potential for biophysical impacts, or dynamic successional changes. We propose three deployment types for ecosystem-scale flux measurements at various NCS scales to constrain wide uncertainties and chart a workable path forward: “pilot”, “upscale”, and “monitor”. Together, the integration of ecosystem-scale flux measurements by the NCS community and the prioritization of NCS measurements by the flux community, have the potential to improve accounting in ways that capture the net impacts, unintended feedbacks, and on-the-ground specifics of a wide range of emerging NCS strategies. 

Abstract Hydraulic stress in plants occurs under conditions of low water availability (soil moisture; θ) and/or high atmospheric demand for water (vapor pressure deficit; D). Different species are adapted to respond to hydraulic stress by functioning along a continuum where, on one hand, they close stomata to maintain a constant leaf water potential (ΨL) (isohydric species), and on the other hand, they allow ΨL to decline (anisohydric species). Differences in water-use along this continuum are most notable during hydrologic stress, often characterized by low θ and high D; however, θ and D are often, but not necessarily, coupled at time scales of weeks or longer, and uncertainty remains about the sensitivity of different water-use strategies to these variables. We quantified the effects of both θ and D on canopy conductance (Gc) among widely distributed canopy-dominant species along the isohydric–anisohydric spectrum growing along a hydroclimatological gradient. Tree-level Gc was estimated using hourly sap flow observations from three sites in the eastern United States: a mesic forest in western North Carolina and two xeric forests in southern Indiana and Missouri. Each site experienced at least 1 year of substantial drought conditions. Our results suggest that sensitivity of Gc to θ varies across sites and species, with Gc sensitivity being greater in dry than in wet sites, and greater for isohydric compared with anisohydric species. However, once θ limitations are accounted for, sensitivity of Gc to D remains relatively constant across sites and species. While D limitations to Gc were similar across sites and species, ranging from 16 to 34% reductions, θ limitations to Gc ranged from 0 to 40%. The similarity in species sensitivity to D is encouraging from a modeling perspective, though it implies that substantial reduction to Gc will be experienced by all species in a future characterized by higher D. 

Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle by altering the rate of water fluxes to and from the terrestrial surface, resulting in an increase in extreme precipitation events and longer dry spells. Prior hydrological intensification work has largely focused on precipitation without joint consideration of evaporative demand changes and how plants respond to these changes. Informed by state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we examine projected changes in hydrological intensification and its role in complicating water resources management using a framework that accounts for precipitation surplus and evaporative demand. Using a metric that combines the difference between daily precipitation and daily evaporative demand (surplus events) and consecutive days when evaporative demand exceeds precipitation (deficit time), we show that, globally, surplus events will become larger (+11.5% and +18.5% for moderate and high emission scenarios, respectively) and the duration between them longer (+5.1%; +9.6%) by the end of the century, with the largest changes in the northern latitudes. The intra‐annual occurrence of these extremes will stress existing water management infrastructure in major river basins, where over one third of years during 2070–2100 under a moderate emissions scenario will be hydrologically intense (large intra‐annual increases in surplus intensity and deficit time), tripling that of the historical baseline. Larger increases in hydrologically intense years are found in basins with large reservoir capacity (e.g., Amazon, Congo, and Danube River Basins), which have significant populations, irrigate considerable farmland, and support threatened and endangered aquatic species. Incorporating flexibility into water resource infrastructure and management will be paramount with continued hydrological intensification.

 

Meteorological drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) are frequently used to diagnose “ecological drought,” despite the fact that they were not explicitly designed for this purpose. More recently developed indices like the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which is based on the degree of coupling between actual to potential evapotranspiration, may better capture dynamic plant response to moisture limitations. However, the skill of these indices at describing plant water stress is rarely evaluated at sub‐seasonal timescales over which drought evolves. Moreover, it remains unclear how variability in phenological timing impacts and complicates early drought detection. Here, we compared the ability of ESI and SPEI to reflect the dynamics of ecological drought in forests and grasslands, based on anomalies of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), surface conductance (G_s, a proxy for stomatal conductance), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. ESI performed better than SPEI in capturing the dynamics of GPP andG_s, but still missed early ecological drought signals due to biases linked to earlier onset of spring leaf development. Thus, we developed a modified variant of the ESI () that accounts for the complicating effects of phenological shifts in leaf area index (LAI). Thedetected drought onset up to 7–10 weeks earlier than SPEI and ESI. Additionally, drought onset dates determined fromare close to (±2 weeks) the dates determined from LAI‐corrected anomalies ofG_s, and GPP, as well as the onset dates of soil water deficit and atmospheric aridity.

 

The spatio‐temporal variation of stomatal conductance directly regulates photosynthesis, water partitioning, and biosphere‐atmosphere interactions. While many studies have focused on stomatal response to stresses, the spatial variation of unstressed stomatal conductance remains poorly determined, and is usually characterized in land surface models (LSMs) simply based on plant functional type (PFT). Here, we derived unstressed stomatal conductance at the ecosystem‐scale using observations from 115 global FLUXNET sites. When aggregated by PFTs, the across‐PFT pattern was highly consistent with the parameterizations of LSMs. However, PFTs alone captured only 17% of the variation in unstressed stomatal conductance across sites. Within the same PFT, unstressed stomatal conductance was negatively related to climate dryness and canopy height, which explained 45% of the total spatial variation. Our results highlight the importance of plant‐environment interactions in shaping stomatal traits. The trait‐environment relationship established here provides an empirical approach for improved parameterizations of stomatal conductance in LSMs.